| Jamie Dupree |
The Russian Bear Returns
Russia's military moves into the Georgian area of South Osettia proves that a series of actions over the past two years by Vladimir Putin were exactly what some thought - warning signs of a change in their posture vis a vis the United States.
Georgia considers itself a US ally. They had 2,000 troops in Iraq, helping the US there.
Georgian military leaders would probably hope the US would plunk some men and materiel in Tblisi to bolster an ally, with the Russian Bear not far over the horizon.
Unfortunately for the Georgian leadership, they should probably consult their history books and read about Hungary in 1956 to see what the Western response might be.
It would be hard to fathom the US risking war with Russia over Georgia. Unfortunately, the flip side of watching Russia possibly swallow an independent nation does not seem all that impossible.
The warning signs of Russian aggression have not been hard to miss. It was almost a year ago to the day that Russian long range bombers began flying missions which had ended when the Cold War finally evaporated.
Russia stopped those flights in 1992 and then re-started them after a 15 year hiatus. At the time, Putin seemed to blame the US for not ending its own military flights.
"Unfortunately, our example was not followed by everyone," said Putin last year.
Putin has also raised major objections to a US missile defense system in Eastern Europe to counter a perceived missile threat from Iran.
Putin has said Iran poses no danger and has bitterly denounced the plan to build a defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, two areas formerly under the control of the Soviet Union.
Putin even went so far as to threaten to pull out of a major Cold War nuclear arms treaty.
The change in rhetoric has been there for awhile, even if President Bush originally got a different vibe from Putin in June of 2001.
"I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy," Mr. Bush told a joint news conference in Slovenia.
Whether this Georgia foray is something that won't be repeated, no one knows.
But it is clear, Vladimir Putin wants to re-establish Russia as a major world power. And he wants to establish Russian dominance of nations close to the mother country, which were once part of the Soviet Union's sphere of influence.
One can quite honestly ask the question, will the Baltics be next? What about Ukraine and other newly independent states?
It presents a major challenge for the next U.S. President.
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